Writing about Hollywood, William Goldman famously said, “Nobody knows anything.” I feel much the same about publishing. When eBooks first broke, I repeatedly heard people say, “That will never catch on,” or “I love the feel of a real book in my hands.” Well, guess what? EBooks account for about 75% of sales in popular fiction, and a large chunk of the other categories. Similarly, the big New York publishers were little concerned when Amazon hit the scene. Who wants to buy online? “People want to hold the book and thumb through the pages, then carry it home with them.” Wrong again. The ease of advance ordering, home delivery, and deeply discounted prices vastly outweighed the advantages of brick-and-mortar stores, at least in many people’s minds.

It’s been almost ten years since the eBook revolution began, and the publishing world is still going through tremendous changes. Audiobooks are not a fad. They are the future. Amazon is the nation’s most sucessful retailer, not just in books, but overall. Self-publishing is not only viable, at least for some, it is profitable. Online marketing is paramount. But people wonder–how long will this last? Is this a fad or a new world order?

Prognostications for the Future:

  1. Indie Authors (Self-Pubbed Authors) Will Increase Their EBook Share. Traditional publishing in many ways seems mired in the past. They price eBooks too high and rely on “legacy authors,” which means their output shows little innovation. Indie authors can be more flexible and responsive. They can price their books lower, or use price pulsing and short-term free promos to spur sales. Indie works best when it innovates, not imitates. Indies are better at taking risks. There are too many idenitical-looking romances and Star Wars ripoffs. Indies are free to experiement, which doesn’t always work–but when it does, that’s when you see someone break out big. In 2017 the number of authors who reported making over $100,000 from writing grew by 70% over 2016. Who did this? The authors who paid attention to trends, stayed up-to-date on the latest information, and made the most of their opportunities, I predict the indie eBook share will increase in 2018.
  2. Marketing Will Change and Some Approaches Will Stop Working. Facebook and Amazon ads have become more popular and, as a result, more expensive. (I’ve had success with Amazon ads, less so with Facebook.) As more and more authors go indie, the need to market your work to emerge from the crowd will increase. I suspect more authors will use freelance marketing agencies, because it makes good business sense, and because the work is complex and time-consuming. (We will have some narketing firms at the RSC writers conference.) I believe you will see more emphasis on email marketing–going direct to the reader. Of course, that means you need a solid, curated list of readers, and you know what interests them.
  3. Amazon Will Continue to Grow–and That May Not Always Be Good. Amazon recently canceled the Kindle Scout program. What’s next? What happens if Amazon doesn’t love us anymore? Does anyone have the power to retaliate? Last year, Amazon made changes to its affiliate program that basically made it less profitable for participants. This trend will probably continue, because Amazon no longer needs to drive customers to them–they’re already there. Kindle Unlimited has some competition, but it remains by far the largest reader subscription service. KU pays out a lot of money each month, but it is divided into many different hands. For authors with a few titles, it is the simplest way to go, though it means being completely dependent upon Amazon. Last year, after much hand-wringing, I took all the titles I controlled out of KU, but it was a tough decision and there were no clear answers.
  4. You Need an Audiobook. If you really want to invest in your publishing future, this is what you should be doing. Audiobooks are the fastest growing segment of the book market. A few weeks ago, I recorded an audiobook for a fellow wirter using our home studio–and his audiobook is already outselling the eBook.  According to Kelly Lytle of Findaway Voices, “Digital audiobooks will remain the fastest growth area in publishing with sales increasing 30% to 40% or more. The dynamics—ease of access for consumers, lifestyle habits, increased market competition, new selling models—have all synced up to create significant staying power. It should surprise nobody when the market size of audiobooks surpasses eBooks in a few years.”
  5. Readers still love reading and still love books. This was my final point in the last newsletter, too, because it’s still true and, for me, it’s the point to always keep uppermost in your mind. Yes, you need to remember that this is a business, and you need knowledge and connections to be successful in any business. But writing is also an art. Books have changed people’s lives and have changed the world–and they will again. What is it you want to say to the world?
William Bernhardt

William Bernhardt is the author of 46 books, including the New York Times-bestselling Ben Kincaid series (including Justice Returns in 2017), thrillers, a young adult series, historical fiction, two books of poetry, and the Red Sneaker series of books on writing.